IEA Forecasts First Decline in Global Oil Demand by 2030 Since Pandemic - english.pardafas.com

Global oil demand is expected to dip slightly in 2030, marking the first decline since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest annual outlook released on Tuesday. The Paris-based agency attributes the projected downturn to a combination of factors including slowing global economic growth, rising geopolitical tensions, the accelerated adoption of electric vehicles, and a broader transition away from crude oil for power generation. The IEA projects annual demand growth to slow to around 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 2026 before tapering off. Demand is forecast to peak at 105.6 million bpd in 2029 and then slip slightly to 105.5 million bpd by 2030. Oil consumption had plummeted to 91.7 million bpd during the 2020 pandemic lockdowns but rebounded steadily in subsequent years. However, long-term trends suggest a turning point is imminent. U.S. demand, the highest globally, is expected to peak in 2024 and decline from 2026, while China’s consumption—the world’s largest oil importer—is projected to drop after 2028. The Middle East is also expected to see peak demand in 2027, followed by a decline. Saudi Arabia, the report notes, will experience the steepest national decline in oil demand as it transitions to gas and renewables for power generation. Despite geopolitical tensions, including the recent exchange of missile strikes between Israel and Iran, the IEA emphasized that current oil price surges are not driven by market fundamentals. “There is ample supply, and demand is not catching up,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. He added that the agency is prepared to respond if supply disruptions arise. The IEA anticipates that global oil production capacity will grow by 5.1 million bpd to reach 114.7 million bpd by 2030—far outpacing demand. The United States and Saudi Arabia alone are expected to account for 40 percent of this supply increase.The post IEA Forecasts First Decline in Global Oil Demand by 2030 Since Pandemic first appeared on epardafas.com.